Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2008
The Conference Board of Canada, 16 pages
July 15, 2008
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.
- Data for the first quarter of 2008 was paradoxical in that growth
in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. outperformed
that in Canada. However, in terms of income, employment, and
domestic demand growth, Canada remains in much better shape.
- A decline in exports, especially in the auto sector, will result in
real GDP growth for Canada of only 1.7 per cent this year, a full
percentage point below the 2007 performance. Economic growth
is expected to accelerate to 2.7 per cent in 2009, helped by a
better trade performance and still strong domestic demand.
- The general rise in commodity prices may be here to stay.
Seemingly insatiable global demand for raw materials, coupled
with a recovery in forestry product prices, should keep prices
elevated and shore up resource revenues and private investment.
- Luckily for manufacturers, the loonie seems to have stopped
riding the coattails of energy prices. The Canadian dollar is
expected to remain relatively stable over 2008 and 2009, just
shy of parity.
- Surprise, surprise . . . despite the dire projections in the latest
round of federal and provincial budgets, government revenues
are, once again, growing more strongly than expected. However,
at the regional level, results will be lopsided in favour of resourceand